CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-08-26T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-26T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40852/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. Source is an eruption from Active Region 14197 (S20E50) and associated M4.5 flare seen starting around 2025-08-26T05:21Z in SDO AIA 171/193. Ejecta can be seen in STEREO A EUVI 304, SDO AIA 304, and GOES SUVI 304 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-30T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40854/1
Model Inputs:
2025-08-26T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-47.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=335.0, HalfAngle=44.0, Time21.5=2025-08-26T16:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-30T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-30T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250826_165300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 93.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-26T14:05Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy